Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Pacers (65%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pacers (-6.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (64%) · Bucks at 36¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27

Pacers65¢Bucks35¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$85.68

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 35.5¢

-36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers65%

Bucks36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,764

Combined PnL+$11.83

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,774

Combined PnL-$97.51

Bucks — 64%Pacers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (4 on Pacers) disagree here.

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bucksavg 58.6¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$330.54	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 58.6¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$332.17
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 50.3¢	$498.61	$500.25	+$1.64
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bucksavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$19.98	48% 413-442 (855)
hammyandcheese	Pacersavg 49¢	$980	$870	-$110	58% 340-251 (591)
RN1CTR	Bucksavg 59¢	$715.26	$715.26	-$0	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bucksavg 50.6¢	$230.15	$225.23	-$4.93	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
TA takeormake	Pacersavg 49.9¢	$149.13	$164.52	+$15.39	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
HRTrading	Pacersavg 41.2¢	$107.13	$106.6	-$1.83	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Pacersavg 42¢	$96.6	$88.15	-$1.08	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Bucksavg 59¢	$36.58	$36.58	+$0	50% 3628-3599 (7227)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Bucksavg 59¢	$19.27	$19.05	-$0.22	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bucksavg 51.5¢	$17.84	$6.8	-$3.01	57% 12531-9470 (22001)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2,647.12

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$330.54

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Bucks$2,148.5158.6¢-$332.17

Pacers$498.6150.3¢+$1.64

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,179.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,020.79

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$19.98

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

hammyandcheese

Pacers

Invested

$980

Value

$870

PnL

-$110

Record

58%

340-251 (591)

RN1CTR

Bucks

Invested

$715.26

Value

$715.26

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

justaluckydudeCTR

Bucks

Invested

$230.15

Value

$225.23

PnL

-$4.93

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

takeormake

Pacers

Invested

$149.13

Value

$164.52

PnL

+$15.39

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

HRTrading

Pacers

Invested

$107.13

Value

$106.6

PnL

-$1.83

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Forecastication2<$100

Pacers

Invested

$96.6

Value

$88.15

PnL

-$1.08

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$36.58

Value

$36.58

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3628-3599 (7227)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$19.27

Value

$19.05

PnL

-$0.22

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$17.84

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$3.01

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (4 on Pacers) disagree here.

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.