Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Pacers (68%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pacers (-5.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (67%) · Bucks at 32¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 27

Pacers68¢Bucks32¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$216.44

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 32¢

-34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers68%

Bucks32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,153

Combined PnL+$266.78

Pacers3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,084

Combined PnL-$50.34

Bucks — 67%Pacers — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pacersavg 51.2¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$10.42	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 51.2¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$56.01
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 49.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$45.59
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Pacersavg 51.1¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$136.62	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 45.1¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$106.4
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 51.1¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$30.22
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$265.89	48% 413-442 (855)
SA SadSquid54333	Pacersavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$50	61% 154-97 (251)
LE leungchihangCTR	Bucksavg 56¢	$208.24	$208.24	-$0	51% 41-40 (81)
RN1CTR	Bucksavg 57¢	$142.5	$140	-$2.5	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Pacersavg 44.8¢	$88.44	$87.08	-$1.36	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 44.8¢	$65.82	$64.68	-$1.14
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 56.5¢	$22.62	$22.4	-$0.22
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Bucksavg 52¢	$39	$40.88	+$1.88	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Bucksavg 56¢	$39.34	$39.34	-$0.35	50% 3628-3599 (7227)
TA takeormake<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$39	$36	-$3	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Bucksavg 50.2¢	$24.29	$26.16	+$1.87	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
GH ghorrock<$100	Pacersavg 47.6¢	$19.98	$5.25	+$2.66	57% 12531-9470 (22001)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$5,156.63

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$10.42

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Pacers$3,504.7251.2¢+$56.01

Bucks$1,651.9149.4¢-$45.59

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$3,312.73

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$136.62

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Both legs:

Bucks$1,643.9545.1¢+$106.4

Pacers$1,668.7851.1¢+$30.22

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,511.02

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$265.89

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

SadSquid54333

Pacers

Invested

$2,650

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$50

Record

61%

154-97 (251)

leungchihangCTR

Bucks

Invested

$208.24

Value

$208.24

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

41-40 (81)

RN1CTR

Bucks

Invested

$142.5

Value

$140

PnL

-$2.5

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$88.44

Value

$87.08

PnL

-$1.36

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Both legs:

Pacers$65.8244.8¢-$1.14

Bucks$22.6256.5¢-$0.22

Anon455CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$39

Value

$40.88

PnL

+$1.88

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$39.34

Value

$39.34

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

3628-3599 (7227)

takeormake<$100

Pacers

Invested

$39

Value

$36

PnL

-$3

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$24.29

Value

$26.16

PnL

+$1.87

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

ghorrock<$100

Pacers

Invested

$19.98

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$2.66

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.