Spread: Pacers (-4.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (80%) · Bucks at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Pacers50¢Bucks50¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$7.15

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers50%

Bucks51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,480

Combined PnL+$49.61

Bucks4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,464

Combined PnL-$56.76

Pacers — 20%Bucks — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkpay19888CTR	Pacersavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$49.61	53% 501-436 (937)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Bucksavg 50¢	$893.18	$875.32	-$17.86	47% 2247-2492 (4739)
RollAwayTheDew	Bucksavg 51¢	$687.32	$673.85	-$13.48	52% 267-243 (510)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Bucksavg 51¢	$510	$490	-$20	53% 5193-4518 (9711)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 50.6¢	$167.01	$161.58	-$5.42	55% 15292-12760 (28052)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Pacersavg 49¢	$65.76	$66.96	+$0.35	57% 24224-18647 (42871)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49¢	$41.76	$43.44	+$0.83
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 50¢	$24	$23.52	-$0.48

kkpay19888CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,215.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$49.61

Record

53%

501-436 (937)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Bucks

Invested

$893.18

Value

$875.32

PnL

-$17.86

Record

47%

2247-2492 (4739)

RollAwayTheDew

Bucks

Invested

$687.32

Value

$673.85

PnL

-$13.48

Record

52%

267-243 (510)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Bucks

Invested

$510

Value

$490

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5193-4518 (9711)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$167.01

Value

$161.58

PnL

-$5.42

Record

55%

15292-12760 (28052)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$65.76

Value

$66.96

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

24224-18647 (42871)

Both legs:

Pacers$41.7649¢+$0.83

Bucks$2450¢-$0.48

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.