Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Pacers (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Pacers (-3.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$26.22
46.1¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Bucksavg 45.9¢ | $672.38 | $688.22 | +$15.83 | 62% 3895-2356 (6251) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Bucksavg 47.2¢ | $401.37 | $399.96 | -$1.41 | 63% 5890-3452 (9342) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 45.1¢ | $212.12 | $221.25 | +$9.12 | 54% 15474-12956 (28430) |
 RN1CTR | Bucksavg 46¢ | $117.59 | $120.09 | +$2.5 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Bucksavg 46.5¢ | $56.59 | $56.93 | +$0.34 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 46.5¢ | $31.15 | $31.49 | +$0.34 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 53¢ | $25.44 | $25.44 | +$0 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 45¢ | $13.75 | $11.92 | +$0.17 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
Invested
$672.38
Value
$688.22
PnL
+$15.83
Record
62%
3895-2356 (6251)
Invested
$401.37
Value
$399.96
PnL
-$1.41
Record
63%
5890-3452 (9342)
Invested
$212.12
Value
$221.25
PnL
+$9.12
Record
54%
15474-12956 (28430)
RN1CTRInvested
$117.59
Value
$120.09
PnL
+$2.5
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$56.59
Value
$56.93
PnL
+$0.34
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$13.75
Value
$11.92
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.