Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (60%) · Pacers at 56¢ · $807 held · ends Oct 27

Pacers56¢Bucks44¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 60%

Total Value

$806.66

Combined PnL

-$2.68

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers56%

Bucks44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers3 traders

Total Value$491.51

Total Shares851

Combined PnL+$0.65

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$315.15

Total Shares724

Combined PnL-$3.33

Pacers — 60%Bucks — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Pacersavg 56¢	$414.62	$418.32	+$3.7	55% 14758-12309 (27067)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Bucksavg 44¢	$292.54	$289.51	-$3.03	63% 3819-2278 (6097)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pacersavg 56¢	$46.56	$46.69	+$0.13	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Pacersavg 56¢	$29.68	$26.5	-$3.18	62% 5463-3346 (8809)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Bucksavg 44¢	$25.94	$25.64	-$0.29	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

HomeRunHazard

Pacers

Invested

$414.62

Value

$418.32

PnL

+$3.7

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

SunlineTickerCTR

Bucks

Invested

$292.54

Value

$289.51

PnL

-$3.03

Record

63%

3819-2278 (6097)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pacers

Invested

$46.56

Value

$46.69

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

Forecastication2<$100

Pacers

Invested

$29.68

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$3.18

Record

62%

5463-3346 (8809)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$25.94

Value

$25.64

PnL

-$0.29

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.