Spread: Pacers (-1.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 56¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
8
Pacers 50%
$9.6K
-$80.68
58.7¢ → 56.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Pacersavg 59¢ | $4.5K | $4.3K | -$191.64 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Bucksavg 40.9¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$100.29 | 62% 3928-2392 (6320) |
 VeryLucky888 | Pacersavg 57.2¢ | $721.55 | $731.36 | +$9.82 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
 RN1 | Pacersavg 58¢ | $434.98 | $434.98 | -$0 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 42.1¢ | $60.68 | $60.49 | -$0.19 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 40¢ | $40.8 | $42.84 | +$1.02 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Pacersavg 59¢ | $36.58 | $35.96 | -$0.31 | 50% 3628-3599 (7227) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 41¢ | $25.7 | $26.03 | +$0.33 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
Invested
$4,474.63
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$191.64
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$3,862.07
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$100.29
Record
62%
3928-2392 (6320)
VeryLucky888Invested
$721.55
Value
$731.36
PnL
+$9.82
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
RN1Invested
$434.98
Value
$434.98
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$60.68
Value
$60.49
PnL
-$0.19
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$40.8
Value
$42.84
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
Invested
$36.58
Value
$35.96
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
3628-3599 (7227)
Invested
$25.7
Value
$26.03
PnL
+$0.33
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.