Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Bucks (99%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pacers (-10.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (75%) · Pacers at 1.2¢ · $31K held · ended Oct 27

Pacers1¢Bucks99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.0K

Combined PnL

$-27.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 1.2¢

-97% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Bucks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers1%

Bucks99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers6 traders

Total Value$27.3K

Total Shares115,379

Combined PnL$-27.6K

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,130

Combined PnL-$141.03

Pacers — 75%Bucks — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 46.8¢	$53.2K	$26.5K	$-26.7K	48% 413-442 (855)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 57.3¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$200.22	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
AN Anon455CTR	Pacersavg 46.9¢	$1.5K	$752.48	-$725.96	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Bucksavg 65.5¢	$480.36	$496.65	+$16.28	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 65.5¢	$323.66	$383.25	+$59.58
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 31.1¢	$156.7	$113.4	-$43.3
JU justaluckydude	Bucksavg 62.8¢	$253.1	$312.28	+$59.18	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR	Pacersavg 47¢	$228.42	$109.35	-$119.07	47% 196-223 (419)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pacersavg 38.4¢	$39.37	$12.77	-$4.94	57% 12546-9489 (22035)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Pacersavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.13	-$0.48	50% 6676-6669 (13345)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$1.41	$0.68	-$0.73	54% 2299-1927 (4226)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$53,208.95

Value

$26.5K

PnL

$-26.7K

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$3,032.43

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$200.22

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Anon455CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,478.45

Value

$752.48

PnL

-$725.96

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

takeormakeARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$480.36

Value

$496.65

PnL

+$16.28

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Both legs:

Bucks$323.6665.5¢+$59.58

Pacers$156.731.1¢-$43.3

justaluckydude

Bucks

Invested

$253.1

Value

$312.28

PnL

+$59.18

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR

Pacers

Invested

$228.42

Value

$109.35

PnL

-$119.07

Record

47%

196-223 (419)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$39.37

Value

$12.77

PnL

-$4.94

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

6676-6669 (13345)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1.41

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.73

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Bucks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4233.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4333.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.