Pacers vs. Bucks
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (60%) · Pacers at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
5
Pacers 60%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
$7.19
59.9¢ → 59.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100 | Pacersavg 60¢ | $368.43 | $369.67 | +$1.24 | 62% 5122-3132 (8254) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 60¢ | $197.4 | $192.46 | -$4.94 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 40.1¢ | $171.03 | $177.2 | +$6.17 | |
HI hi774cCTR | Bucksavg 38¢ | $252.62 | $265.92 | +$13.3 | 52% 4448-4092 (8540) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Pacersavg 61¢ | $263.42 | $252.62 | -$10.8 | 53% 327-289 (616) |
 RollAwayTheDewARB<$100 | Bucksavg 40¢ | $236.06 | $240.09 | +$4.04 | 54% 261-224 (485) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 40¢ | $154.54 | $156.47 | +$1.93 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 58¢ | $81.52 | $83.63 | +$2.11 | |
BO BoomLaLa | Pacersavg 58¢ | $116 | $117 | +$1 | 55% 9600-7828 (17428) |
JA JameslyyCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 40¢ | $80 | $83 | +$3 | 68% 712-341 (1053) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Pacersavg 58.9¢ | $64.04 | $64.73 | +$0.69 | 56% 21200-16956 (38156) |
Invested
$368.43
Value
$369.67
PnL
+$1.24
Record
62%
5122-3132 (8254)
Both legs:
Invested
$252.62
Value
$265.92
PnL
+$13.3
Record
52%
4448-4092 (8540)
Invested
$263.42
Value
$252.62
PnL
-$10.8
Record
53%
327-289 (616)
RollAwayTheDewARB<$100Invested
$236.06
Value
$240.09
PnL
+$4.04
Record
54%
261-224 (485)
Both legs:
Invested
$116
Value
$117
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
9600-7828 (17428)
Invested
$80
Value
$83
PnL
+$3
Record
68%
712-341 (1053)
Invested
$64.04
Value
$64.73
PnL
+$0.69
Record
56%
21200-16956 (38156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.