Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 235.5

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$134.18

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,658

Combined PnL-$13.29

Over2 traders

Total Value$390.83

Total Shares854

Combined PnL+$147.47

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 59¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$13.29	67% 3573-1724 (5297)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 45¢	$221.07	$368.45	+$147.38	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$57.08	$76.85	+$19.77	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.1¢	$25.18	$45.09	+$19.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.2¢	$31.9	$31.76	-$0.14
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$21.77	$22.38	+$0.09	55% 14891-12190 (27081)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$1,049.89

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$13.29

Record

67%

3573-1724 (5297)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$221.07

Value

$368.45

PnL

+$147.38

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$57.08

Value

$76.85

PnL

+$19.77

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Both legs:

Over$25.1825.1¢+$19.91

Under$31.955.2¢-$0.14

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.77

Value

$22.38

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.