Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 233.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 47¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.8K
-$54.1
45.9¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 46.4¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$71.12 | 55% 12124-10004 (22128) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Overavg 44.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$16.32 | 68% 3517-1687 (5204) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 45.9¢ | $96.09 | $97.16 | -$1.13 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.9¢ | $50.54 | $51.15 | -$1.59 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $45.55 | $46.01 | +$0.46 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $30.36 | $31.05 | +$0.35 | 61% 4541-2874 (7415) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $12.11 | $12.67 | +$0.56 | 55% 9069-7470 (16539) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $9 | -$0.2 | 56% 6364-5100 (11464) |
Invested
$3,513.83
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$71.12
Record
55%
12124-10004 (22128)
Invested
$1,073.13
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$16.32
Record
68%
3517-1687 (5204)
Invested
$96.09
Value
$97.16
PnL
-$1.13
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.36
Value
$31.05
PnL
+$0.35
Record
61%
4541-2874 (7415)
Invested
$12.11
Value
$12.67
PnL
+$0.56
Record
55%
9069-7470 (16539)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.2
Record
56%
6364-5100 (11464)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.