Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 229.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 100%
2 arb excluded
$3.8K
$25.27
46.1¢ → 47¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 45.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$17.64 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$30.86 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.8¢ | $559.65 | $546.42 | -$13.23 | |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $2.7K | $1.2K | +$25.27 | 50% 1012-1005 (2017) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 54.6¢ | $63.3 | $62 | -$1.3 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.6¢ | $33.85 | $35.34 | +$1.49 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.5¢ | $29.45 | $26.66 | -$2.79 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $18.33 | $18.33 | +$0 | 61% 4513-2865 (7378) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.7 | +$0 | 56% 6353-5083 (11436) |
Invested
$2,466.96
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$17.64
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,655.28
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$25.27
Record
50%
1012-1005 (2017)
Invested
$63.3
Value
$62
PnL
-$1.3
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
Invested
$18.33
Value
$18.33
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
4513-2865 (7378)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6353-5083 (11436)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.