Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 227.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 84¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$260.93

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 84¢

+66% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,997

Combined PnL+$260.94

Under2 traders

Total Value$22.68

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$0.01

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.9¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$60.11	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.9¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$137.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.1¢	$891.68	$814.03	-$77.66
TA takeormake	Overavg 51.5¢	$811.52	$1.1K	+$308.92	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 46.9¢	$224.65	$177.07	-$47.58	47% 327-376 (703)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 58.8¢	$21.75	$21.36	-$0.39	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$12.92	$17.68	+$0.34	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$5.35	$5	-$0.35	51% 4228-4041 (8269)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,512.77

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$60.11

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

Both legs:

Over$2,621.0848.9¢+$137.77

Under$891.6853.1¢-$77.66

takeormake

Over

Invested

$811.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$308.92

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$224.65

Value

$177.07

PnL

-$47.58

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$21.75

Value

$21.36

PnL

-$0.39

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.92

Value

$17.68

PnL

+$0.34

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.35

Value

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.