Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 225.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

24.8¢ → 97¢

+292% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,107

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,037

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 18.7¢	$1.6K	$4.7K	+$3.1K	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$42.01	46% 327-379 (706)
TA takeormake	Overavg 59.8¢	$400.66	$821.13	+$420.47	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$1.4K	$346.55	$-1.1K	52% 5333-4910 (10243)
HRTradingARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$88.08	$87.26	-$0.82	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$58.14	$61.04	+$2.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.4¢	$29.94	$26.21	-$3.73
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.25	-$0.15	51% 4293-4089 (8382)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,611.21

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,081.87

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$42.01

Record

46%

327-379 (706)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$400.66

Value

$821.13

PnL

+$420.47

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$1,438.36

Value

$346.55

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

5333-4910 (10243)

HRTradingARB<$100

Over

Invested

$88.08

Value

$87.26

PnL

-$0.82

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Both legs:

Over$58.1452.4¢+$2.91

Under$29.9451.4¢-$3.73

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

4293-4089 (8382)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.