Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Pacers (52%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pacers (-9.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (44%) · Nets at 49¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25

Pacers52¢Nets48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$298.7

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 48.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers52%

Nets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets4 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares14,734

Combined PnL+$60.11

Pacers5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,703

Combined PnL+$238.59

Nets — 44%Pacers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pacersavg 49.6¢	$4.1K	$3.8K	-$205.91	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49.6¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$17.41
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 56.7¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$223.32
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Netsavg 49¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$68.89	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Netsavg 49.1¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$29.85	47% 327-376 (703)
TA takeormake	Pacersavg 39.4¢	$798.7	$996.84	+$198.14	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
AN Anon455	Pacersavg 48¢	$480	$500	+$20	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Netsavg 61.9¢	$527.11	$485.28	-$41.83	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
HRTrading	Pacersavg 48.9¢	$185.41	$189.52	+$4.1	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
RN1	Pacersavg 38.7¢	$146.26	$162.6	+$16.34	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Netsavg 57.6¢	$78.18	$81.12	+$0.31	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 57.6¢	$39.75	$40.71	+$3.03
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 40.9¢	$38.43	$40.41	-$2.72
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Netsavg 60¢	$76.89	$75.61	+$3.2	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
RL RLWG<$100	Pacersavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	51% 4228-4041 (8269)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4,050.95

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$205.91

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

Both legs:

Pacers$2,163.0549.6¢+$17.41

Nets$1,887.956.7¢-$223.32

mooseborzoiiCTR

Nets

Invested

$3,375.7

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$68.89

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nets

Invested

$3,368.5

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$29.85

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

takeormake

Pacers

Invested

$798.7

Value

$996.84

PnL

+$198.14

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Anon455

Pacers

Invested

$480

Value

$500

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

SunlineTickerCTR

Nets

Invested

$527.11

Value

$485.28

PnL

-$41.83

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

HRTrading

Pacers

Invested

$185.41

Value

$189.52

PnL

+$4.1

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

RN1

Pacers

Invested

$146.26

Value

$162.6

PnL

+$16.34

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$78.18

Value

$81.12

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Both legs:

Nets$39.7557.6¢+$3.03

Pacers$38.4340.9¢-$2.72

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$76.89

Value

$75.61

PnL

+$3.2

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

RLWG<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.