Spread: Pacers (-8.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (57%) · Pacers at 56¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Pacers56¢Nets44¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$424.65

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 55.5¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers56%

Nets45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,698

Combined PnL+$419.25

Nets3 traders

Total Value$179.31

Total Shares328

Combined PnL+$5.39

Pacers — 57%Nets — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 58.8¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$42.07	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 58.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$12.59
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 39.7¢	$904.15	$933.64	+$29.48
TA takeormake	Pacersavg 42.3¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$394.79	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
AN Anon455	Pacersavg 52.1¢	$561.38	$581.38	+$20	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Netsavg 56¢	$119.84	$126.26	+$7.49	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
HRTradingARB<$100	Pacersavg 41.2¢	$63.21	$74.88	+$11.67	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 41.2¢	$40.52	$53.14	+$12.62
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 48¢	$22.69	$21.74	-$0.95
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Netsavg 48¢	$53.76	$51.52	-$2.24	47% 327-376 (703)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Pacersavg 41¢	$45.51	$51.06	+$5.55	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pacersavg 44.3¢	$45.08	$47.34	-$1.09	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Netsavg 58¢	$1.38	$1.52	+$0.14	52% 5440-5053 (10493)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$4,420.49

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$42.07

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

Both legs:

Nets$3,516.3458.8¢+$12.59

Pacers$904.1539.7¢+$29.48

takeormake

Pacers

Invested

$1,487.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$394.79

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Anon455

Pacers

Invested

$561.38

Value

$581.38

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Nets

Invested

$119.84

Value

$126.26

PnL

+$7.49

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

HRTradingARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$63.21

Value

$74.88

PnL

+$11.67

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Both legs:

Pacers$40.5241.2¢+$12.62

Nets$22.6948¢-$0.95

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$53.76

Value

$51.52

PnL

-$2.24

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

SunlineTicker<$100

Pacers

Invested

$45.51

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$5.55

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pacers

Invested

$45.08

Value

$47.34

PnL

-$1.09

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

5440-5053 (10493)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.