Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Nets (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pacers (-7.5)

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (67%) · Pacers at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25

Pacers49¢Nets51¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$3.22

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 49¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers49%

Nets51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers2 traders

Total Value$746.35

Total Shares1,523

Combined PnL+$2.29

Nets1 trader

Total Value$240.04

Total Shares471

Combined PnL+$0.93

Pacers — 67%Nets — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Pacersavg 48¢	$480	$490	+$10	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pacersavg 49¢	$652.53	$256.35	-$7.71	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
GO goldmyname	Netsavg 50¢	$424.2	$240.04	+$0.93	67% 83-41 (124)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Pacersavg 49¢	$63.43	$63.46	+$0.03	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49¢	$31.82	$31.85	+$0.03
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 51¢	$31.61	$31.61	-$0

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Pacers

Invested

$480

Value

$490

PnL

+$10

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pacers

Invested

$652.53

Value

$256.35

PnL

-$7.71

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

goldmyname

Nets

Invested

$424.2

Value

$240.04

PnL

+$0.93

Record

67%

83-41 (124)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$63.43

Value

$63.46

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Both legs:

Pacers$31.8249¢+$0.03

Nets$31.6151¢-$0

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.