Spread: Pacers (-4.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (67%) · Pacers at 58¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 67%
$1.2K
-$51.19
58.9¢ → 58¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Pacersavg 58¢ | $597.29 | $597.29 | -$0 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
 VeryLucky888 | Pacersavg 60¢ | $300 | $255 | -$45 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Pacersavg 60¢ | $178.8 | $151.98 | -$26.82 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Netsavg 40¢ | $111.87 | $137.04 | +$25.17 | 61% 4558-2887 (7445) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Netsavg 41¢ | $40.07 | $40.56 | +$0.49 | 68% 3522-1694 (5216) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Pacersavg 59.1¢ | $36.64 | $31.61 | -$5.03 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
RN1Invested
$597.29
Value
$597.29
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
VeryLucky888Invested
$300
Value
$255
PnL
-$45
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$178.8
Value
$151.98
PnL
-$26.82
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$111.87
Value
$137.04
PnL
+$25.17
Record
61%
4558-2887 (7445)
Invested
$40.07
Value
$40.56
PnL
+$0.49
Record
68%
3522-1694 (5216)
Invested
$36.64
Value
$31.61
PnL
-$5.03
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.