Spread: Pacers (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (60%) · Pacers at 99¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
5
Pacers 60%
2 arb excluded
$12.5K
$505.7
52.8¢ → 99¢
+88% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Pacersavg 54.7¢ | $7.4K | $7.6K | +$257.88 | 55% 12487-10261 (22748) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 54.7¢ | $4.4K | $6.0K | +$1.6K | |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 46.2¢ | $3.0K | $1.7K | $-1.3K | |
AN Anon455 | Pacersavg 54.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.4K | +$301.88 | 56% 2114-1685 (3799) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Pacersavg 49¢ | $992.18 | $1.2K | +$210.55 | 46% 327-379 (706) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Netsavg 44.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$310.43 | 55% 3088-2507 (5595) |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 44.2¢ | $1.1K | $626.34 | -$438.16 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 54.8¢ | $363.68 | $491.4 | +$127.72 | |
 RN1 | Pacersavg 59¢ | $147.49 | $144.99 | -$2.5 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Netsavg 39.4¢ | $35.28 | $30.89 | -$4.39 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Netsavg 51¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 51% 4293-4089 (8382) |
Invested
$7,380.56
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$257.88
Record
55%
12487-10261 (22748)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,092.89
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$301.88
Record
56%
2114-1685 (3799)
Invested
$992.18
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$210.55
Record
46%
327-379 (706)
Invested
$1,428.18
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$310.43
Record
55%
3088-2507 (5595)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$147.49
Value
$144.99
PnL
-$2.5
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$35.28
Value
$30.89
PnL
-$4.39
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
4293-4089 (8382)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.