Spread: Pacers (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (67%) · Pacers at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
3
Pacers 67%
2 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$5.14
54.5¢ → 99.3¢
+82% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Pacersavg 60.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$95.82 | 55% 3088-2507 (5595) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 60.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | +$377.59 | |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 43.8¢ | $593.21 | $609.33 | -$281.77 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Pacersavg 52¢ | $523.38 | $730.34 | +$75.82 | 46% 327-379 (706) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 52¢ | $436.88 | $462.09 | +$210.04 | |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 45.5¢ | $271.33 | $268.25 | -$134.22 | |
AN Anon455 | Pacersavg 54.4¢ | $407.08 | $413.88 | +$6.8 | 56% 2114-1685 (3799) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Pacersavg 57¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 51% 4293-4089 (8382) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Netsavg 40¢ | $13.51 | $1.47 | -$12.04 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
Invested
$1,495.44
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$95.82
Record
55%
3088-2507 (5595)
Both legs:
Invested
$523.38
Value
$730.34
PnL
+$75.82
Record
46%
327-379 (706)
Both legs:
Invested
$407.08
Value
$413.88
PnL
+$6.8
Record
56%
2114-1685 (3799)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
4293-4089 (8382)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.51
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$12.04
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.