Spread: Pacers (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (60%) · Pacers at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
5
Pacers 60%
$3.1K
$42.17
65.7¢ → 99¢
+51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Pacersavg 67.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$250.83 | 56% 2114-1685 (3799) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Pacersavg 54¢ | $302.45 | $431.27 | +$145.62 | 46% 327-379 (706) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Netsavg 42.2¢ | $669.32 | $364.78 | -$352.12 | 55% 3088-2507 (5595) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Netsavg 34.7¢ | $9.54 | $6.32 | -$3.22 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Pacersavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $3.85 | +$1.05 | 51% 4293-4089 (8382) |
Invested
$2,092.34
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$250.83
Record
56%
2114-1685 (3799)
Invested
$302.45
Value
$431.27
PnL
+$145.62
Record
46%
327-379 (706)
Invested
$669.32
Value
$364.78
PnL
-$352.12
Record
55%
3088-2507 (5595)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.54
Value
$6.32
PnL
-$3.22
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$1.05
Record
51%
4293-4089 (8382)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.