Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (79%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 249.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 21¢ · $714 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$713.73
-$180.31
29.9¢ → 21¢
-30% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 67.6¢ | $207.85 | $245.2 | +$37.36 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 31.3¢ | $415.14 | $232.32 | -$182.82 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 29.6¢ | $229.92 | $194.25 | -$35.67 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $19.61 | $23.04 | +$3.43 | 53% 11389-9936 (21325) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 23.5¢ | $16.5 | $13.78 | -$2.71 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $5.02 | $5.13 | +$0.11 | 56% 2440-1906 (4346) |
RN1Invested
$207.85
Value
$245.2
PnL
+$37.36
Record
54%
54957-46919 (101876)
Invested
$415.14
Value
$232.32
PnL
-$182.82
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$229.92
Value
$194.25
PnL
-$35.67
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$19.61
Value
$23.04
PnL
+$3.43
Record
53%
11389-9936 (21325)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.5
Value
$13.78
PnL
-$2.71
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$0.11
Record
56%
2440-1906 (4346)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.