Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 53¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$17.91

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 53¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,576

Combined PnL-$67.33

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,285

Combined PnL+$85.24

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 50.1¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$86.23	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
RN1CTR	Underavg 50.6¢	$460.85	$469.94	+$9.09	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 57¢	$395.35	$450.93	+$55.59	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 46.6¢	$364.39	$390.68	+$26.3	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45¢	$318.17	$346.45	+$28.28	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
AW aweso	Overavg 53.1¢	$150.81	$150.46	-$0.35	54% 21-18 (39)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 53.1¢	$86.26	$78.54	-$7.72	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 52.6¢	$59.42	$57.59	-$1.83	49% 18284-18729 (37013)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 57¢	$45.6	$42	-$3.6	48% 414-442 (856)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 44.1¢	$22.95	$21.33	-$1.62	55% 7964-6450 (14414)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$2,691.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$86.23

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$460.85

Value

$469.94

PnL

+$9.09

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$395.35

Value

$450.93

PnL

+$55.59

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$364.39

Value

$390.68

PnL

+$26.3

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$318.17

Value

$346.45

PnL

+$28.28

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

aweso

Over

Invested

$150.81

Value

$150.46

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

21-18 (39)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86.26

Value

$78.54

PnL

-$7.72

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$59.42

Value

$57.59

PnL

-$1.83

Record

49%

18284-18729 (37013)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$45.6

Value

$42

PnL

-$3.6

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$22.95

Value

$21.33

PnL

-$1.62

Record

55%

7964-6450 (14414)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.