Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$18.87
53.2¢ → 45.5¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455CTR | Underavg 53.2¢ | $1.0K | $537.69 | +$2.82 | 56% 2440-1906 (4346) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 46.9¢ | $329.66 | $330.15 | +$0.49 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.9¢ | $198.6 | $186.24 | -$12.36 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $131.07 | $143.92 | +$12.85 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 49.4¢ | $348.39 | $310.47 | -$37.92 | 48% 414-442 (856) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 46.8¢ | $293.21 | $309.07 | +$15.86 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.8¢ | $156.8 | $182.58 | +$25.78 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.1¢ | $136.41 | $126.49 | -$9.92 | |
 HRTradingCTR | Underavg 52.1¢ | $126.52 | $135.88 | +$9.36 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Underavg 54.5¢ | $105.65 | $112.52 | +$6.87 | 50% 3633-3602 (7235) |
Invested
$1,005.02
Value
$537.69
PnL
+$2.82
Record
56%
2440-1906 (4346)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$329.66
Value
$330.15
PnL
+$0.49
Record
54%
54957-46919 (101876)
Both legs:
Invested
$348.39
Value
$310.47
PnL
-$37.92
Record
48%
414-442 (856)
Invested
$293.21
Value
$309.07
PnL
+$15.86
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTRInvested
$126.52
Value
$135.88
PnL
+$9.36
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
Invested
$105.65
Value
$112.52
PnL
+$6.87
Record
50%
3633-3602 (7235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.