Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 50¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 27

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

$183.45

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 50¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares13,205

Combined PnL-$106.36

Under8 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares19,263

Combined PnL+$289.81

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$8.9K	$9.1K	+$229.57	48% 414-442 (856)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.7¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$37.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.2¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$192.18
stringXX	Overavg 47¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$3.22	50% 77-78 (155)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 47.7¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$293.66	53% 598-534 (1132)
SU suleng66	Underavg 57.7¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$246.17	63% 186-107 (293)
Nooserac	Underavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$165.51	52% 5668-5221 (10889)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$37.01	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
TA takeormake	Overavg 55.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$108.87	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$808.85	$785.66	-$23.19	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.2¢	$542.65	$529.14	-$13.51
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$266.2	$256.52	-$9.68
latvian.demon	Underavg 48.5¢	$500	$546.42	+$46.42	54% 597-514 (1111)
AN Anon455	Underavg 50.1¢	$881.22	$431.8	-$10.13	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Overavg 50¢	$200	$192	-$8	53% 3064-2690 (5754)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 50¢	$40.78	$43.23	+$2.45	50% 3633-3602 (7235)
GA GamblingOdyssey<$100	Overavg 42¢	$77.59	$39.57	+$6.98	51% 831-787 (1618)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 46¢	$16.33	$17.38	+$1.05	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
MI mishipolis<$100	Overavg 51¢	$20.2	$10	+$0.5	50% 4379-4294 (8673)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.8	$4.61	-$0.2	55% 7964-6450 (14414)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,915.67

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$229.57

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Both legs:

Under$5,861.4352.7¢+$37.39

Over$3,054.2544.2¢+$192.18

stringXX

Over

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$3.22

Record

50%

77-78 (155)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$2,659.68

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$293.66

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

suleng66

Under

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$246.17

Record

63%

186-107 (293)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$2,027.56

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$165.51

Record

52%

5668-5221 (10889)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,203.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$37.01

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,139.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$108.87

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$808.85

Value

$785.66

PnL

-$23.19

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

Both legs:

Over$542.6548.2¢-$13.51

Under$266.255¢-$9.68

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$546.42

PnL

+$46.42

Record

54%

597-514 (1111)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$881.22

Value

$431.8

PnL

-$10.13

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$192

PnL

-$8

Record

53%

3064-2690 (5754)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$40.78

Value

$43.23

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

3633-3602 (7235)

GamblingOdyssey<$100

Over

Invested

$77.59

Value

$39.57

PnL

+$6.98

Record

51%

831-787 (1618)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$16.33

Value

$17.38

PnL

+$1.05

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

mishipolis<$100

Over

Invested

$20.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

4379-4294 (8673)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

7964-6450 (14414)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.