Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$11.76

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 54.5¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL+$55

Over3 traders

Total Value$726.88

Total Shares1,498

Combined PnL-$43.23

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$897.77	$950.72	+$52.95	55% 13724-11269 (24993)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 51¢	$741.4	$697.79	-$43.61	49% 16876-17268 (34144)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Underavg 50¢	$51.09	$53.13	+$2.04	57% 4910-3638 (8548)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20	$19.8	-$0.2	57% 23656-18201 (41857)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$8.71	$9.29	+$0.58	53% 265-237 (502)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$897.77

Value

$950.72

PnL

+$52.95

Record

55%

13724-11269 (24993)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$741.4

Value

$697.79

PnL

-$43.61

Record

49%

16876-17268 (34144)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Under

Invested

$51.09

Value

$53.13

PnL

+$2.04

Record

57%

4910-3638 (8548)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

23656-18201 (41857)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.71

Value

$9.29

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

265-237 (502)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.