Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.6K
$67.63
50.1¢ → 50¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 50.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$68.36 | 55% 14758-12309 (27067) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $37.35 | $37 | -$0.35 | 57% 23972-18438 (42410) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $36.26 | $35.15 | -$1.11 | 62% 5463-3346 (8809) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $20.41 | $9.08 | +$0.48 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $4.75 | +$0.25 | 56% 6646-5318 (11964) |
Invested
$1,422.64
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$68.36
Record
55%
14758-12309 (27067)
Invested
$37.35
Value
$37
PnL
-$0.35
Record
57%
23972-18438 (42410)
Invested
$36.26
Value
$35.15
PnL
-$1.11
Record
62%
5463-3346 (8809)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$20.41
Value
$9.08
PnL
+$0.48
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
56%
6646-5318 (11964)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.