Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 41¢ · $355 held · ends Oct 27

Over60¢Under40¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$355.21

Combined PnL

-$20.63

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 40.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$250.89

Total Shares602

Combined PnL-$17.99

Over1 trader

Total Value$30.8

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$2.64

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44.5¢	$186.35	$173.89	-$12.47	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 42.3¢	$71.21	$73.52	+$3.42	57% 24505-18852 (43357)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.3¢	$50.71	$52.8	+$2.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.4¢	$20.5	$20.72	+$1.33
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$78.13	$72.8	-$5.33	52% 267-243 (510)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Overavg 60.8¢	$33.44	$30.8	-$2.64	62% 3889-2347 (6236)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$4.3	$4.2	-$0.2	56% 6694-5364 (12058)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$186.35

Value

$173.89

PnL

-$12.47

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$71.21

Value

$73.52

PnL

+$3.42

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

Both legs:

Under$50.7142.3¢+$2.09

Over$20.555.4¢+$1.33

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.13

Value

$72.8

PnL

-$5.33

Record

52%

267-243 (510)

SunlineTicker<$100

Over

Invested

$33.44

Value

$30.8

PnL

-$2.64

Record

62%

3889-2347 (6236)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

6694-5364 (12058)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.