Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 38¢ · $167 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$167.45
-$11.3
41.3¢ → 37.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 43.8¢ | $64.97 | $62.28 | -$7.88 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $47.5 | $52.5 | +$5 | 63% 5802-3427 (9229) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.5¢ | $27.8 | $28.14 | +$0.34 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $187.53 | $20.75 | -$8.45 | 62% 101-62 (163) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $3.78 | $3.78 | -$0.32 | 56% 6694-5364 (12058) |
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$64.97
Value
$62.28
PnL
-$7.88
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$52.5
PnL
+$5
Record
63%
5802-3427 (9229)
Invested
$27.8
Value
$28.14
PnL
+$0.34
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
Invested
$187.53
Value
$20.75
PnL
-$8.45
Record
62%
101-62 (163)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$3.78
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.32
Record
56%
6694-5364 (12058)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.