Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Warriors (83%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (43%) · Nuggets at 17¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
7
Nuggets 43%
1 arb excluded
$24.5K
$2.4K
41¢ → 17¢
-59% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL olegioCTR | Nuggetsavg 41¢ | $13.9K | $16.6K | +$2.7K | 44% 404-519 (923) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 58.7¢ | $6.2K | $6.0K | -$262.01 | 54% 16560-13892 (30452) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 58.7¢ | $4.6K | $4.0K | -$594.81 | |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 40.8¢ | $1.7K | $2.0K | +$332.8 | |
JU justaluckydude | Warriorsavg 60¢ | $2.0K | $1.7K | -$304.13 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
SU SunlineTicker | Warriorsavg 59¢ | $106.71 | $92.42 | -$14.29 | 62% 3934-2398 (6332) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Warriorsavg 58¢ | $18.57 | $18.68 | -$0 | 57% 27306-20190 (47496) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Warriorsavg 52¢ | $9.88 | $9.7 | -$0.18 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 26.1¢ | $7.55 | $5.81 | -$1.74 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 39¢ | $0.64 | $0.35 | -$0.29 | 58% 39913-28822 (68735) |
Invested
$13,940
Value
$16.6K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
44%
404-519 (923)
Invested
$6,226.13
Value
$6.0K
PnL
-$262.01
Record
54%
16560-13892 (30452)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,038.7
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$304.13
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$106.71
Value
$92.42
PnL
-$14.29
Record
62%
3934-2398 (6332)
Invested
$18.57
Value
$18.68
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
27306-20190 (47496)
Invested
$9.88
Value
$9.7
PnL
-$0.18
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.55
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$1.74
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.29
Record
58%
39913-28822 (68735)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.