Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (40%) · Warriors at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
5
Warriors 40%
$7.7K
-$427.32
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Warriorsavg 53¢ | $7.9K | $7.5K | -$450 | 54% 553-473 (1026) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Nuggetsavg 43.7¢ | $122.39 | $139.94 | +$17.54 | 55% 14758-12309 (27067) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 48¢ | $51.36 | $53.5 | +$2.14 | 62% 5463-3346 (8809) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 46¢ | $35.47 | $38.56 | +$3.08 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Warriorsavg 52¢ | $2.13 | $2.05 | -$0.08 | 57% 23972-18438 (42410) |
Invested
$7,949.98
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$450
Record
54%
553-473 (1026)
Invested
$122.39
Value
$139.94
PnL
+$17.54
Record
55%
14758-12309 (27067)
Invested
$51.36
Value
$53.5
PnL
+$2.14
Record
62%
5463-3346 (8809)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$35.47
Value
$38.56
PnL
+$3.08
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.08
Record
57%
23972-18438 (42410)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.