Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (80%) · Nuggets at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
5
Nuggets 80%
$2.8K
-$4.73
52.7¢ → 52¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Nuggetsavg 53¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$16.21 | 50% 1083-1075 (2158) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Nuggetsavg 52¢ | $520 | $525 | +$5 | 53% 5255-4588 (9843) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Warriorsavg 47¢ | $322.42 | $325.85 | +$3.43 | 62% 3895-2356 (6251) |
 VeryLucky888 | Nuggetsavg 51.7¢ | $358.86 | $210.25 | +$3.94 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Nuggetsavg 54.4¢ | $25.04 | $24.15 | -$0.89 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
Invested
$1,717.99
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$16.21
Record
50%
1083-1075 (2158)
Invested
$520
Value
$525
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5255-4588 (9843)
Invested
$322.42
Value
$325.85
PnL
+$3.43
Record
62%
3895-2356 (6251)
VeryLucky888Invested
$358.86
Value
$210.25
PnL
+$3.94
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$25.04
Value
$24.15
PnL
-$0.89
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.