Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Warriors (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (57%) · Nuggets at 0.4¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
7
Nuggets 57%
$8.4K
$309.91
51.3¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Nuggetsavg 51.3¢ | $4.7K | $5.2K | +$490.56 | 54% 16560-13892 (30452) |
TA takeormake | Warriorsavg 60.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$126.6 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
AN Anon455CTR | Nuggetsavg 55.9¢ | $924.89 | $892.73 | -$32.16 | 56% 2440-1906 (4346) |
 RN1CTR | Nuggetsavg 47.7¢ | $562.35 | $264.29 | -$298.06 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Nuggetsavg 49¢ | $88.36 | $107.36 | +$19 | 48% 414-442 (856) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Warriorsavg 71¢ | $44.73 | $49.14 | +$4.41 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Warriorsavg 51¢ | $1.53 | $1.1 | -$0.44 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
Invested
$4,735.57
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$490.56
Record
54%
16560-13892 (30452)
Invested
$1,725.4
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$126.6
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$924.89
Value
$892.73
PnL
-$32.16
Record
56%
2440-1906 (4346)
RN1CTRInvested
$562.35
Value
$264.29
PnL
-$298.06
Record
54%
54957-46919 (101876)
Invested
$88.36
Value
$107.36
PnL
+$19
Record
48%
414-442 (856)
Invested
$44.73
Value
$49.14
PnL
+$4.41
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$0.44
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.