Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Warriors (100%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (47%) · Nuggets at 0.5¢ · $144K held · ended Oct 27

Nuggets<1¢Warriors>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$144.2K

Combined PnL

$26.5K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets1%

Warriors100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets7 traders

Total Value$126.8K

Total Shares191,900

Combined PnL+$26.1K

Warriors8 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares12,096

Combined PnL+$412.14

Nuggets — 47%Warriors — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanciCTR	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$52.4K	$70.6K	+$18.2K	65% 37-20 (57)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nuggetsavg 49.7¢	$39.5K	$48.6K	+$9.1K	48% 414-442 (856)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 48.1¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$236.38	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 48.1¢	$5.5K	$4.9K	-$582.62
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 49.1¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$346.24
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$4.0K	$5.3K	+$1.3K	53% 41-36 (77)
AW aweso	Warriorsavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$1.99	54% 21-18 (39)
JU justaluckydude	Warriorsavg 61.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$40.02	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 53.3¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$361.98	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
RN1	Warriorsavg 56.6¢	$918.89	$973.54	+$54.65	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
GA gagarin59CTR	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$3.7K	$911.92	$-2.8K	53% 598-534 (1132)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$624	$792	+$168	51% 1154-1090 (2244)
AN Anon455CTR	Nuggetsavg 56¢	$543.05	$640.02	+$96.97	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Warriorsavg 49¢	$76.44	$53.04	-$23.4	49% 589-601 (1190)
PA pauleta23<$100	Warriorsavg 49.1¢	$76.44	$52.96	-$23.48	67% 22976-11372 (34348)
HRTrading<$100	Warriorsavg 60.6¢	$44.85	$48.97	+$4.12	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Warriorsavg 33¢	$7.92	$8.16	+$0.24	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 31.6¢	$8.83	$1.68	-$7.15	57% 12548-9494 (22042)

yabanciCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$52,430

Value

$70.6K

PnL

+$18.2K

Record

65%

37-20 (57)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$39,503.79

Value

$48.6K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$7,589.04

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$236.38

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

Both legs:

Nuggets$5,450.7848.1¢-$582.62

Warriors$2,138.2649.1¢+$346.24

lightotunnel35CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$4,000

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

41-36 (77)

aweso

Warriors

Invested

$5,006.49

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$1.99

Record

54%

21-18 (39)

justaluckydude

Warriors

Invested

$2,439.16

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$40.02

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$1,008.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$361.98

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

RN1

Warriors

Invested

$918.89

Value

$973.54

PnL

+$54.65

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

gagarin59CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$3,665.92

Value

$911.92

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$624

Value

$792

PnL

+$168

Record

51%

1154-1090 (2244)

Anon455CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$543.05

Value

$640.02

PnL

+$96.97

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

seeeeeeb<$100

Warriors

Invested

$76.44

Value

$53.04

PnL

-$23.4

Record

49%

589-601 (1190)

pauleta23<$100

Warriors

Invested

$76.44

Value

$52.96

PnL

-$23.48

Record

67%

22976-11372 (34348)

HRTrading<$100

Warriors

Invested

$44.85

Value

$48.97

PnL

+$4.12

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Warriors

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$0.24

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$8.83

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$7.15

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.