Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Warriors (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (67%) · Nuggets at 1.1¢ · $91K held · ended Oct 27

Nuggets1¢Warriors99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$91.4K

Combined PnL

$14.8K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 1.1¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 99%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets1%

Warriors99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$79.2K

Total Shares113,977

Combined PnL+$15.0K

Warriors2 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,858

Combined PnL-$173.47

Nuggets — 67%Warriors — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$63.0K	$78.6K	+$15.6K	48% 414-442 (856)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 44.2¢	$6.9K	$7.5K	+$531.49	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 44.2¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$84.22
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 46.4¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$447.27
JU justaluckydude	Warriorsavg 60¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$100.45	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 44.5¢	$649.39	$687.62	+$38.23	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 44.5¢	$407.92	$380.49	-$27.43
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 46¢	$241.47	$307.13	+$65.66
RN1CTR	Nuggetsavg 38.7¢	$981.95	$392.75	-$589.19	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR	Nuggetsavg 54¢	$147.26	$185.44	+$38.18	48% 521-561 (1082)
GA Gaditima	Warriorsavg 95¢	$195.9	$122.88	-$73.02	—
HRTradingCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 41.7¢	$47.18	$30.88	-$16.29	54% 2345-1973 (4318)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$63,021.07

Value

$78.6K

PnL

+$15.6K

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$6,932.2

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$531.49

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

Both legs:

Nuggets$4,533.9644.2¢+$84.22

Warriors$2,398.2546.4¢+$447.27

justaluckydude

Warriors

Invested

$4,049.4

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$100.45

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

takeormakeARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$649.39

Value

$687.62

PnL

+$38.23

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Both legs:

Nuggets$407.9244.5¢-$27.43

Warriors$241.4746¢+$65.66

RN1CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$981.95

Value

$392.75

PnL

-$589.19

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$147.26

Value

$185.44

PnL

+$38.18

Record

48%

521-561 (1082)

Gaditima

Warriors

Invested

$195.9

Value

$122.88

PnL

-$73.02

Record

—

HRTradingCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$47.18

Value

$30.88

PnL

-$16.29

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 99%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4550.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

4650.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.