Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Nuggets (73%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Warriors vs. Nuggets

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (88%) · Warriors at 28¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Warriors28¢Nuggets72¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 88%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$132.06

Smart Money Entry

30¢ → 27.5¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors28%

Nuggets73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares9,045

Combined PnL-$132.56

Nuggets1 trader

Total Value$72.33

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$0.51

Warriors — 88%Nuggets — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Warriorsavg 30.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$119.28	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
IC ic4creamCTR	Warriorsavg 28.9¢	$698.37	$688.33	-$10.04	63% 2261-1350 (3611)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Warriorsavg 29¢	$187.19	$183.96	-$3.23	54% 253-212 (465)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Nuggetsavg 71¢	$71.83	$72.33	+$0.51	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 29.2¢	$61.13	$19.95	+$0.55	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 30.4¢	$7.6	$7.12	-$0.48	51% 4110-3965 (8075)
GO goldmynameCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 27¢	$3.03	$3.09	+$0.06	67% 85-42 (127)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 30¢	$3	$2.85	-$0.15	56% 6385-5115 (11500)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,791.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$119.28

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

ic4creamCTR

Warriors

Invested

$698.37

Value

$688.33

PnL

-$10.04

Record

63%

2261-1350 (3611)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Warriors

Invested

$187.19

Value

$183.96

PnL

-$3.23

Record

54%

253-212 (465)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$71.83

Value

$72.33

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$61.13

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

RLWGCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$0.48

Record

51%

4110-3965 (8075)

goldmynameCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0.06

Record

67%

85-42 (127)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.