Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 97¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$10.5K
$4.1K
52.6¢ → 96.8¢
+84% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53¢ | $3.3K | $6.3K | +$3.0K | 55% 12568-10337 (22905) |
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 51¢ | $1.2K | $2.0K | +$820.05 | 52% 7071-6423 (13494) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51.3¢ | $854.53 | $1.4K | +$585.84 | 46% 328-382 (710) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 45.6¢ | $471.89 | $300.26 | -$332.11 | 55% 3104-2515 (5619) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 60¢ | $108.3 | $172.79 | +$64.49 | 56% 2130-1695 (3825) |
 RN1 | Underavg 56¢ | $140 | $162.5 | -$7.5 | 55% 46138-38317 (84455) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Underavg 53.9¢ | $95.75 | $101.04 | +$5.29 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.9¢ | $57.08 | $75.16 | +$18.08 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43.3¢ | $38.67 | $25.88 | -$12.79 | |
RL RLWG<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $3.25 | +$0.65 | 51% 4438-4219 (8657) |
Invested
$3,326.1
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$3.0K
Record
55%
12568-10337 (22905)
Invested
$1,178.1
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$820.05
Record
52%
7071-6423 (13494)
Invested
$854.53
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$585.84
Record
46%
328-382 (710)
Invested
$471.89
Value
$300.26
PnL
-$332.11
Record
55%
3104-2515 (5619)
Invested
$108.3
Value
$172.79
PnL
+$64.49
Record
56%
2130-1695 (3825)
RN1Invested
$140
Value
$162.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
55%
46138-38317 (84455)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$95.75
Value
$101.04
PnL
+$5.29
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.6
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0.65
Record
51%
4438-4219 (8657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.