Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 52¢ · $18K held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$17.7K
$7.94
51.1¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 47.9¢ | $16.6K | $16.8K | +$206.52 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.9¢ | $8.8K | $9.0K | +$197.51 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.9¢ | $7.8K | $7.8K | +$9.01 | |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 50.1¢ | $408.53 | $419.72 | +$11.19 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
 RN1 | Underavg 52¢ | $260 | $257.5 | -$2.5 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
NA NatoAlfista | Underavg 53¢ | $105.47 | $101.49 | -$1 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $53.58 | $54.72 | -$0.57 | 61% 4723-2962 (7685) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $42.02 | $42.8 | +$0.78 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.57 | +$0.02 | 51% 4228-4041 (8269) |
Invested
$16,627.07
Value
$16.8K
PnL
+$206.52
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Both legs:
Invested
$408.53
Value
$419.72
PnL
+$11.19
Record
67%
3569-1722 (5291)
RN1Invested
$260
Value
$257.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$105.47
Value
$101.49
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
Invested
$53.58
Value
$54.72
PnL
-$0.57
Record
61%
4723-2962 (7685)
Invested
$42.02
Value
$42.8
PnL
+$0.78
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.57
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
4228-4041 (8269)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.