Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 49¢ · $2K held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$2.3K
$1.71
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52¢ | $874.72 | $874.72 | +$0 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $583.15 | $583.15 | +$0 | 55% 4229-3429 (7658) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $480 | $480 | +$0 | 69% 4259-1919 (6178) |
VI vibing123 | Overavg 51¢ | $177.77 | $179.52 | +$1.74 | 57% 1283-987 (2270) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47.9¢ | $129.87 | $130.08 | +$0.21 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $35.3 | $35.03 | -$0.24 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.6 | +$0 | 51% 3973-3830 (7803) |
Invested
$874.72
Value
$874.72
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
Invested
$583.15
Value
$583.15
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
4229-3429 (7658)
Invested
$480
Value
$480
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
4259-1919 (6178)
Invested
$177.77
Value
$179.52
PnL
+$1.74
Record
57%
1283-987 (2270)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$129.87
Value
$130.08
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$35.3
Value
$35.03
PnL
-$0.24
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3973-3830 (7803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.