Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 45¢ · $349 held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$349.48
-$7.55
46.2¢ → 44.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $205.16 | $196.24 | -$2.23 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.3¢ | $54.1 | $53.2 | -$1.06 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $50.23 | $47.02 | -$2.67 | 50% 163-161 (324) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.9¢ | $60.28 | $45.76 | -$1.72 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $6.99 | $7.26 | +$0.13 | 57% 4546-3373 (7919) |
Invested
$205.16
Value
$196.24
PnL
-$2.23
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
Invested
$54.1
Value
$53.2
PnL
-$1.06
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
Invested
$50.23
Value
$47.02
PnL
-$2.67
Record
50%
163-161 (324)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$60.28
Value
$45.76
PnL
-$1.72
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
4546-3373 (7919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.