Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 94¢ · $644 held · ended Oct 25

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$643.77

Combined PnL

$28.51

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 93.5¢

+109% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$244.13

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$38.72

Over2 traders

Total Value$32.57

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$10.21

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$302.99	$367.07	-$75.29	46% 328-382 (710)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$248.87	$258.82	-$129.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$117.27	$108.25	+$54.12
RN1	Underavg 42¢	$105	$130	-$10	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
HRTrading	Underavg 50.1¢	$62.83	$111.75	+$48.92	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$19.74	$20.13	-$10.45	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$12.18	$12.44	+$0.24	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.59	$2.39	-$0.2	51% 4438-4219 (8657)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$302.99

Value

$367.07

PnL

-$75.29

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

Both legs:

Over$248.8750¢-$129.41

Under$117.2752¢+$54.12

RN1

Under

Invested

$105

Value

$130

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$62.83

Value

$111.75

PnL

+$48.92

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.74

Value

$20.13

PnL

-$10.45

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.18

Value

$12.44

PnL

+$0.24

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.