Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 49¢ · $587 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 25%
$587.45
$248.32
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 49.5¢ | $319.26 | $571.31 | +$252.05 | 46% 328-382 (710) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $9.15 | $7.35 | -$1.8 | 61% 4820-3045 (7865) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $6.49 | $5.21 | -$1.28 | 67% 3583-1733 (5316) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 60.3¢ | $4.23 | $3.58 | -$0.65 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
Invested
$319.26
Value
$571.31
PnL
+$252.05
Record
46%
328-382 (710)
Invested
$9.15
Value
$7.35
PnL
-$1.8
Record
61%
4820-3045 (7865)
Invested
$6.49
Value
$5.21
PnL
-$1.28
Record
67%
3583-1733 (5316)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.23
Value
$3.58
PnL
-$0.65
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.