Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.2K
-$254.3
72¢ → 89.5¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Underavg 81.7¢ | $628.13 | $638.45 | +$10.32 | 56% 2130-1695 (3825) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 44¢ | $100.82 | $229.64 | +$128.82 | 46% 328-382 (710) |
SE seeeeeeb | Underavg 82¢ | $328 | $164 | -$164 | 49% 359-381 (740) |
PA pauleta23 | Underavg 82.8¢ | $328 | $162.35 | -$165.65 | 71% 18315-7461 (25776) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 56.7¢ | $87.8 | $23.68 | -$64.12 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $6.77 | $7.1 | +$0.33 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
Invested
$628.13
Value
$638.45
PnL
+$10.32
Record
56%
2130-1695 (3825)
Invested
$100.82
Value
$229.64
PnL
+$128.82
Record
46%
328-382 (710)
Invested
$328
Value
$164
PnL
-$164
Record
49%
359-381 (740)
Invested
$328
Value
$162.35
PnL
-$165.65
Record
71%
18315-7461 (25776)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$87.8
Value
$23.68
PnL
-$64.12
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Invested
$6.77
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$0.33
Record
55%
15069-12329 (27398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.