Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pistons (66%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (80%) · 76ers at 35¢ · $397 held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
5
76ers 80%
$396.55
-$0.78
39¢ → 34.5¢
-12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 35%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | 76ersavg 40¢ | $200 | $175 | -$7.5 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
SU SunlineTicker | Pistonsavg 60¢ | $153.6 | $157.44 | +$3.84 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 35¢ | $35 | $38.5 | +$3.5 | 55% 9244-7582 (16826) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | 76ersavg 35¢ | $11.83 | $13.01 | +$1.18 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 40¢ | $14.4 | $12.6 | -$1.8 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$200
Value
$175
PnL
-$7.5
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
Invested
$153.6
Value
$157.44
PnL
+$3.84
Record
67%
3569-1722 (5291)
Invested
$35
Value
$38.5
PnL
+$3.5
Record
55%
9244-7582 (16826)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$11.83
Value
$13.01
PnL
+$1.18
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$1.8
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.