Spread: 76ers (-3.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (83%) · Pistons at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Pistons
6
Pistons 83%
1 arb excluded
$7.0K
-$0.84
58.9¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPistons at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Pistonsavg 58.9¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | -$10.87 | 55% 12124-10004 (22128) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Pistonsavg 59¢ | $639.72 | $635.3 | -$0.55 | 69% 4273-1923 (6196) |
SU SunlineTicker | Pistonsavg 58.3¢ | $394.92 | $403.15 | +$8.23 | 68% 3517-1687 (5204) |
 VeryLucky888 | Pistonsavg 59¢ | $300.79 | $288.27 | +$2.52 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Pistonsavg 59¢ | $97.8 | $98.63 | +$0.83 | 50% 160-160 (320) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | 76ersavg 41.1¢ | $83.27 | $82.74 | -$0.53 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 41.1¢ | $60.48 | $59.54 | -$0.94 | |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 58.4¢ | $22.79 | $23.2 | +$0.41 | |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 41¢ | $82 | $81 | -$1 | 55% 9069-7470 (16539) |
Invested
$5,434.78
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$10.87
Record
55%
12124-10004 (22128)
Invested
$639.72
Value
$635.3
PnL
-$0.55
Record
69%
4273-1923 (6196)
Invested
$394.92
Value
$403.15
PnL
+$8.23
Record
68%
3517-1687 (5204)
VeryLucky888Invested
$300.79
Value
$288.27
PnL
+$2.52
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
Invested
$97.8
Value
$98.63
PnL
+$0.83
Record
50%
160-160 (320)
Invested
$83.27
Value
$82.74
PnL
-$0.53
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
Both legs:
Invested
$82
Value
$81
PnL
-$1
Record
55%
9069-7470 (16539)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.