Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pistons (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (60%) · 76ers at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
5
76ers 60%
1 arb excluded
$7.6K
-$111.73
48.1¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FeedTheBigBirdCTR | 76ersavg 48¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$50 | 49% 29-30 (59) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Pistonsavg 52¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$29.94 | 55% 12102-9989 (22091) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | 76ersavg 48.6¢ | $954.19 | $909.56 | -$20.64 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | 76ersavg 49¢ | $299.54 | $287.32 | -$12.23 | 69% 4251-1917 (6168) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | 76ersavg 49.4¢ | $78.68 | $78.43 | -$0.25 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 49.4¢ | $40.49 | $40.18 | -$0.31 | |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 50.9¢ | $38.19 | $38.25 | +$0.06 | |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Pistonsavg 50¢ | $54 | $55.08 | +$1.08 | 61% 4492-2864 (7356) |
FeedTheBigBirdCTRInvested
$4,800
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$50
Record
49%
29-30 (59)
Invested
$1,562.2
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$29.94
Record
55%
12102-9989 (22091)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$954.19
Value
$909.56
PnL
-$20.64
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$299.54
Value
$287.32
PnL
-$12.23
Record
69%
4251-1917 (6168)
Invested
$78.68
Value
$78.43
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
Both legs:
Invested
$54
Value
$55.08
PnL
+$1.08
Record
61%
4492-2864 (7356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.