Spread: 76ers (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (40%) · Pistons at 55¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Pistons
5
Pistons 40%
$8.1K
$71.48
51.9¢ → 54.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPistons at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Pistonsavg 51.4¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$180.62 | 55% 12114-9994 (22108) |
YY YYYYY999 | Pistonsavg 54¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$56.37 | 49% 7154-7315 (14469) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | 76ersavg 51¢ | $510 | $480 | -$30 | 69% 4261-1921 (6182) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | 76ersavg 48.8¢ | $1.4K | $240 | -$17.95 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 52.5¢ | $56.18 | $51.36 | -$4.82 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
Invested
$5,829.82
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$180.62
Record
55%
12114-9994 (22108)
Invested
$1,521.95
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$56.37
Record
49%
7154-7315 (14469)
Invested
$510
Value
$480
PnL
-$30
Record
69%
4261-1921 (6182)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,398.62
Value
$240
PnL
-$17.95
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$56.18
Value
$51.36
PnL
-$4.82
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.