Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pistons (58%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (50%) · 76ers at 42¢ · $49K held · ended Oct 25

Pistons58¢76ers42¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.5K

Combined PnL

-$632.28

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 42¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons58%

76ers42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares30,361

Combined PnL-$185.85

Pistons4 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares24,982

Combined PnL-$446.43

76ers — 50%Pistons — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pistonsavg 52.5¢	$14.2K	$14.4K	+$249.16	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52.5¢	$7.1K	$8.0K	+$883.14
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 45.1¢	$7.0K	$6.4K	-$633.99
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	76ersavg 48¢	$10.5K	$10.4K	+$269.24	46% 328-382 (710)
Nooserac	Pistonsavg 53.6¢	$9.9K	$9.5K	-$479.91	52% 5349-4912 (10261)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	76ersavg 49.4¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$310.38	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 49.4¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$446.36
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 53.5¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$135.98
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 49.8¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$17.79	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 49.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$271.46
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53¢	$1.1K	$863.33	-$253.67
SA SadSquid54333	Pistonsavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$50	62% 131-79 (210)
OL OldZzCTR	76ersavg 51.5¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$190.09	46% 80-94 (174)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	76ersavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$245	38% 390-625 (1015)
TO tomb2456CTR	76ersavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$20	51% 250-244 (494)
RollAwayTheDew	Pistonsavg 52¢	$737.36	$822.44	+$85.08	54% 257-219 (476)
HRTradingARB<$100	Pistonsavg 54.5¢	$79.22	$82.16	+$2.94	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 54.5¢	$46.02	$43.09	-$2.93
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 41.6¢	$33.2	$39.06	+$5.86
RL RLWG<$100	Pistonsavg 53.2¢	$18.35	$16.75	-$1.6	51% 4438-4219 (8657)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$14,182.72

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$249.16

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

Both legs:

Pistons$7,134.152.5¢+$883.14

76ers$7,048.6245.1¢-$633.99

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

76ers

Invested

$10,498.47

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$269.24

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

Nooserac

Pistons

Invested

$9,932.43

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$479.91

Record

52%

5349-4912 (10261)

takeormakeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$3,951

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$310.38

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

Both legs:

76ers$2,624.3649.4¢-$446.36

Pistons$1,326.6353.5¢+$135.98

Anon455ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2,593.85

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$17.79

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

Both legs:

Pistons$1,476.8549.8¢+$271.46

76ers$1,11753¢-$253.67

SadSquid54333

Pistons

Invested

$2,600

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

62%

131-79 (210)

OldZzCTR

76ers

Invested

$2,164.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$190.09

Record

46%

80-94 (174)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,714.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$245

Record

38%

390-625 (1015)

tomb2456CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

250-244 (494)

RollAwayTheDew

Pistons

Invested

$737.36

Value

$822.44

PnL

+$85.08

Record

54%

257-219 (476)

HRTradingARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$79.22

Value

$82.16

PnL

+$2.94

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Both legs:

Pistons$46.0254.5¢-$2.93

76ers$33.241.6¢+$5.86

RLWG<$100

Pistons

Invested

$18.35

Value

$16.75

PnL

-$1.6

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.