Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (25%) · Pistons at 59¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25

Pistons59¢76ers41¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$10.87

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 58.5¢

+39% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons59%

76ers42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$959.28

Total Shares2,310

Combined PnL-$12.5

76ers6 traders

Total Value$867.76

Total Shares1,458

Combined PnL+$1.63

Pistons — 25%76ers — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$8.9K	$8.3K	-$598.52	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$543.26
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 59.9¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$55.26
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 57.3¢	$906.19	$919.81	+$13.61	56% 2114-1685 (3799)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 57.3¢	$680.85	$688.93	+$8.07
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 41¢	$225.34	$230.88	+$5.54
SU SunlineTicker	Pistonsavg 41¢	$868.64	$858.05	-$10.59	67% 3573-1724 (5297)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	76ersavg 59¢	$590	$595	+$5	57% 4583-3398 (7981)
RN1CTR	76ersavg 60¢	$150	$148.75	-$1.25	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 54¢	$103.14	$101.23	-$1.91	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	76ersavg 61.9¢	$67.86	$65.79	-$2.06	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$31.66	$31.93	+$0.27	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
HRTradingCTR<$100	76ersavg 43¢	$24.51	$23.94	-$0.57	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	76ersavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.35	+$0.25	51% 4293-4089 (8382)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$8,850.44

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$598.52

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

Both legs:

76ers$5,022.4146¢-$543.26

Pistons$3,828.0459.9¢-$55.26

Anon455ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$906.19

Value

$919.81

PnL

+$13.61

Record

56%

2114-1685 (3799)

Both legs:

Pistons$680.8557.3¢+$8.07

76ers$225.3441¢+$5.54

SunlineTicker

Pistons

Invested

$868.64

Value

$858.05

PnL

-$10.59

Record

67%

3573-1724 (5297)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

76ers

Invested

$590

Value

$595

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

4583-3398 (7981)

RN1CTR

76ers

Invested

$150

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$103.14

Value

$101.23

PnL

-$1.91

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$67.86

Value

$65.79

PnL

-$2.06

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$31.66

Value

$31.93

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

HRTradingCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$24.51

Value

$23.94

PnL

-$0.57

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

RLWGCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

4293-4089 (8382)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.