Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (86%) · 76ers at 56¢ · $59K held · ends Oct 25

Pistons45¢76ers55¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 86%

Total Value

$59.3K

Combined PnL

-$19.19

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons45%

76ers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons1 trader

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares61,228

Combined PnL-$302.5

76ers6 traders

Total Value$32.0K

Total Shares57,700

Combined PnL+$283.31

Pistons — 14%76ers — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (3 on 76ers) disagree here.

whale76ers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPistons 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 100076ers 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YY YYYYY999CTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$27.5K	$27.2K	-$302.5	49% 7156-7315 (14471)
HO HomeRunHazard	76ersavg 55¢	$19.5K	$19.7K	+$177.62	55% 12124-10004 (22128)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	76ersavg 55¢	$11.0K	$11.1K	+$100	47% 1983-2212 (4195)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	76ersavg 55¢	$550	$550	+$0	69% 4273-1923 (6196)
VeryLucky888	76ersavg 55¢	$574.44	$541.24	+$5.57	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
SL slimjoe<$100	76ersavg 55¢	$63.25	$63.82	+$0.57	52% 5359-4977 (10336)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	76ersavg 56.2¢	$57.53	$57.07	-$0.46	54% 13818-11600 (25418)

YYYYY999CTR

Pistons

Invested

$27,548.75

Value

$27.2K

PnL

-$302.5

Record

49%

7156-7315 (14471)

HomeRunHazard

76ers

Invested

$19,538

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$177.62

Record

55%

12124-10004 (22128)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

76ers

Invested

$11,000

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$100

Record

47%

1983-2212 (4195)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

76ers

Invested

$550

Value

$550

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

4273-1923 (6196)

VeryLucky888

76ers

Invested

$574.44

Value

$541.24

PnL

+$5.57

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

slimjoe<$100

76ers

Invested

$63.25

Value

$63.82

PnL

+$0.57

Record

52%

5359-4977 (10336)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

76ers

Invested

$57.53

Value

$57.07

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (3 on 76ers) disagree here.

whale76ers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPistons 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 100076ers 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.