Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors 76ers (52%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-1.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (20%) · Pistons at 49¢ · $34K held · ends Oct 25

Pistons49¢76ers51¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.5K

Combined PnL

-$160.7

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons49%

76ers52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons1 trader

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares35,751

Combined PnL-$177.12

76ers4 traders

Total Value$964.72

Total Shares1,860

Combined PnL+$16.42

Pistons — 20%76ers — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (2 on 76ers) disagree here.

whalePistons 100% · 1

Aligned

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr76ers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 100076ers 100% · 2

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YY YYYYY999CTR	Pistonsavg 49¢	$17.5K	$17.3K	-$177.12	49% 7156-7315 (14471)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	76ersavg 51¢	$15.1K	$15.2K	+$161.55	55% 12124-10004 (22128)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 51¢	$11.5K	$11.6K	+$111.37
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 47.8¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$50.18
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	76ersavg 51¢	$510	$520	+$10	69% 4273-1923 (6196)
VeryLucky888	76ersavg 51¢	$510	$342.13	+$7.06	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	76ersavg 51¢	$51	$51.5	+$0.5	55% 9069-7470 (16539)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	76ersavg 52.7¢	$52.23	$51.09	-$1.13	54% 13818-11600 (25418)

YYYYY999CTR

Pistons

Invested

$17,516.53

Value

$17.3K

PnL

-$177.12

Record

49%

7156-7315 (14471)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$15,054.9

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$161.55

Record

55%

12124-10004 (22128)

Both legs:

76ers$11,514.7551¢+$111.37

Pistons$3,540.1547.8¢+$50.18

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

76ers

Invested

$510

Value

$520

PnL

+$10

Record

69%

4273-1923 (6196)

VeryLucky888

76ers

Invested

$510

Value

$342.13

PnL

+$7.06

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

BoomLaLa<$100

76ers

Invested

$51

Value

$51.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

9069-7470 (16539)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

76ers

Invested

$52.23

Value

$51.09

PnL

-$1.13

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (2 on 76ers) disagree here.

whalePistons 100% · 1

Aligned

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr76ers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 100076ers 100% · 2

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.